A complicated forecast for today bears the possibility of significant severe weather, including the possibility of strong tornadoes, across much of Kansas. Several areas of possible severe storm focus are expected during the afternoon.
The dry line is retreating rapidly to the west as deep, rich moisture builds in from the south. We will wake up with low clouds and very humid conditions across much of the state.
A powerful upper level storm system charges into this surge of humid and unstable air, and the results may be explosive.
Storms are expected to develop to the south around daybreak and spread rapidly to the north and east. These early storms will carry some severe potential, but they will occur before conditions become more potent later in the day. If a large complex of storms comes together, this may also be a limiting factor as this can overturn the lower atmosphere and induce some stability, but given the type of environment that will be present today, this looks like it will not be enough.
There will be three main areas of storm activity today. The warm front, the dry line, and the open warm sector.
The warm front will be positioned across northern Kansas near I-70. Storms forming in this area will pose an all-hazards threat, but this may be shorter-lived as storms will tend to move northward and cross over the front to cooler, more stable air on the other side.
The dry line will be positioned across western Kansas. West of the dry line is hot, dry air that will carry a fire weather risk for southwestern parts of the state, where storms are not expected. Storms may form along the dry line and march to the east. Again, all hazards will be possible with any storm that forms as they will likely be rotating supercells.
Finally, the open warm sector. Because we have no cap, or layer of warm air aloft to suppress storm development, storms will be able to freely form at the slightest disturbance across a wide swath of the humid and unstable air mass away from the frontal boundaries. There will be significant tornado potential with these storms, especially if they do not crowd each other out.
A storm that manages to keep a little elbow room today will be dangerous, with long-tracked and powerful tornadoes in the cards. If too many storms form in this area, that would lower the tornado threat.
Storms begin to congeal into a line by tonight and this will lead to the possibility of flooding rains, especially for areas to the south and east. Damaging wind gusts and embedded QLCS-type tornadoes (which stands for Quasi-Linear Convective System) may still occur into the late evening along the line, which will eventually drift east and away from the KSN viewing area.
Due to storms moving over the same areas repeatedly especially in the Moderate Risk area, a Flood Watch will be in effect until 1 PM Sunday.
Temperatures today will be warm in the 70s and 80s.
Where few to no storms are expected in southwest Kansas, a Fire Weather Warning will accompany the dry and windy conditions expected.
Some additional storms will be possible on Sunday across eastern Kansas, but the bulk of the activity will happen east of the KSN viewing area.
Temperatures stay mild to start the coming week. Moisture will return by midweek, with the possiblity of more showers and storms though the severe threat will be less substantial with this activity.
KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Meteorologist Jack Maney:
Wichita:
Today: Mostly cloudy, windy. 70% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 79 Wind: S/SE 15-30
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, windy. 80% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 56 Wind: SE/S 10-25
Tomorrow: Mostly to partly cloudy, windy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 74 Wind: S/SW 10-25
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy to mostly clear, breezy. Lo: 47 Wind: SW/NW 10-20
Wichita Weekly
Mon: Hi: 73 Lo: 53 Partly cloudy, breezy.
Tue: Hi: 84 Lo: 57 Partly cloudy, breezy.
Wed: Hi: 79 Lo: 54 Mostly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Thu: Hi: 76 Lo: 56 Mostly cloudy, windy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Fri: Hi: 75 Lo: 53 Partly cloudy.
Sat: Hi: 74 Lo: 52 Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
